Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Thursday, January 11
It’s a busy night on the ice with 13 games on the NHL schedule, and I’ve got a trio of NHL player props to complement the action.
The slate opens with nine games beginning in the early window, and it’s a competitive wave with the Carolina Hurricanes penned the only huge favorite in today's NHL odds. It’s more of the same over the later four contests, with the nightcap between the Boston Bruins and Vegas Golden Knights featuring a pair of favorites in the Stanley Cup odds.
Here are our free NHL picks for Thursday, January 11.
NHL prop picks and best bets for January 11
- Teravainen Over 0.5 assists (+215 at Bet99)
- Kurashev Under 0.5 points (-130 at Bet99)
- Bjorkstrand Over 2.5 shots (+120 at Bet99)
Picks made on January 11 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: It’s Teuvo time
Statistical correction remains straight ahead for Carolina Hurricanes winger Teuvo Teravainen. He’s registered just a single assist across his past 17 games and is sporting a career-low 0.37 assists per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which remains way below his 1.04 mark over the prior three seasons.
Additionally, Teravainen hasn’t picked up a secondary assist at 5-on-5 all year. He’s currently skating on the No. 1 line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, and they pace the Hurricanes in goals per 60 over the past three years. Teravainen also skates with the second power-play unit, so the opportunities to mark the assist column are going to continue to be there.
The draw Thursday is Carolina has a favorable home matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim has surrendered the 10th-most goals per game (3.33) while ranking second last in expected goals against per 60 minutes (3.52). Add in the fact that the Ducks rank 23rd in my defensive ratings and the Hurricanes check out with the second-best offense, and Teravainen is set up to cash in on his positive regression in the assists column.
Teuvo Teravainen prop: Over 0.5 assists (+215 at Bet99)
Prop bet #2: Kurashev cursed in the ‘Peg
The Chicago Blackhawks handed the Winnipeg Jets a 2-1 overtime loss on December 27, and the Jets haven’t been beaten since.
Winnipeg also hasn’t allowed more than two goals in regulation since the calendar flipped to December, and the Jets have been a five-on-five juggernaut ranking first in goals against per 60 minutes (1.3), fifth in expected goals against per 60 (2.38), and first in team SV% (.953) during the 18-game stretch. They’ve also taken the eighth-fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5. The Jets are legit.
Chicago isn’t sneaking up on Winnipeg this time around, and the Blackhawks are also without the straw that stirs the drink: Connor Bedard. That spells trouble for Philipp Kurashev.
Kurashev has transitioned to center, and while he’s playing top offensive minutes, he’s overmatched in the role — especially against Winnipeg. Kurashev’s numbers also plummet when he isn’t skating with Bedard.
Kurashev and Bedard have clicked for a respectable 3.34 goals per 60 minutes, but Kurashev dips to a 2.63 mark without the star rookie. Additionally, Kurashev has an abysmal 39.0 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 without Bedard by his side.
An already league-worst matchup will be even more dire for Kurashev and the injury-depleted Blackhawks on Thursday.
Philipp Kurashev prop: Under 0.5 points (-130 at Bet99)
Prop bet #3: Back Bjorkstrand versus Caps
The Washington Capitals have allowed the second-most shots per 60 minutes (33.37) and have the lowest Corsi For percentage (42.1%) at five-on-five out of the holiday break. The poor possession numbers aren’t anything new, either. Washington ranks 29th in CF% at 5-on-5 for the campaign with a 45.6% mark.
As a result, I’m expecting Seattle Kraken winger Oliver Bjorkstrand to have added shooting opportunities on Thursday. He’s clicked with linemates Yanni Gourde and Eeli Tolvanen for a 54.9 CF% at 5-on-5, and Bjorkstrand paces the Kraken in shot attempts per 60 minutes at both 5-on-5 (17.35) and on the power play (36.08).
Additionally, Bjorkstrand has cleared this 2.5-shot total in consecutive Games, and his line has caved in opponents with a 57.1 CF% at 5-on-5 through six Games out of the holiday break.
Oliver Bjorkstrand prop: Over 2.5 shots (+120 at Bet99)
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