Mavericks vs Lakers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA
The Mavericks are going backward after a hot start to the season, dropping three of their last four as they head off to a mini two-game road trip on the West Coast.
That will begin with a tough test against the red-hot Lakers, who have now won six of seven and shored things up on the defensive end. Will L.A. succumb to fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back, or does it have enough firepower to win this heavily-anticipated matchup?
Let's break down the NBA odds and dive right into it with our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Lakers on Wednesday, November 22.
Mavericks vs Lakers odds
Mavericks vs Lakers predictions
I wrote yesterday when discussing the Los Angeles Lakers that it should just be a matter of days before they’ve risen into the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with the recent progress they’ve made on that end, and lo and behold they enter play on Wednesday ranked 10th in the NBA when it comes to points allowed per 100 possessions.
On Tuesday, L.A. suffocated a Jazz team that’s thrived beyond the arc and posted their second-best defensive output of the season from an efficiency standpoint. The pace of that game was brought up a bit high for their liking, given they run more halfcourt sets per 100 plays than almost anyone, and that should be proof enough that they can take care of a Dallas Mavericks team that also likes to play up-tempo basketball.
Dallas is a dream matchup here for the Lakers given their inability to defend inside. The Mavs dead last with a 73.8% field goal percentage allowed at the rim according to Cleaning the Glass which should put them in a compromised position against a team that does almost all of its work on the offensive end in and around the restricted area.
Sure, the Mavericks technically have an edge of their own given they love to shoot the three and will run into a Lakers team ranked in the middle of the pack in defending the three-ball, but they’ve made some significant strides in bringing that number back down to the levels we’ve seen in the past couple of years and just won a strikingly similar matchup a night ago with ease.
The Lakers are a better team than the Mavericks with the arrow pointing up, and I think that should deliver them the win on the second night of a back-to-back. L.A. was able to get its players enough rest on Tuesday given the nature of the win, and I don’t have fears backing it here.
My best bet: Lakers ML (+120 at DraftKings)
Mavericks vs Lakers same-game parlay
Lakers moneyline
Anthony Davis Over 24.5 points
Dereck Lively Over 15.5 points
We’ll continue to ride the Anthony Davis train here on Wednesday. As I mentioned above, the Mavericks rank dead last when it comes to field goal defense inside of four feet and they’re also third-worst when defending in the short midrange according to Cleaning the Glass.
Davis should absolutely eat in this matchup, and after scoring 27 points in just 29 minutes on Tuesday the big man has now hit 25 or more points in eight of his 14 games this year.
I do think that the Mavericks will unleash Dereck Lively II in this game. He saw 29 minutes last time out against the Kings, who have a dominant offensive big in Domantas Sabonis, and while he did only score six points there I’d also like to point out that the Lakers, for all the size they have, haven’t been the best at defending at the rim this year. I expect another heavy dose of minutes for a Mavericks team that lacks size, and the Lakers are in the bottom half of the league in rebounding.
Whether it’s in the scoring column or the rebounding column – where Lively has recorded nine or more boards in his last four – we should see the rookie make an impact here.
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Mavericks vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
I really wish that oddsmakers learned their lesson from Tuesday’s game. The total was set quite high at 238.5 points and the Under cashed with relative ease given the Lakers’ dominance on defense. While the Mavericks could threaten to increase the pace of this one, I still trust this L.A. defense more than these lines would indicate.
The Lakers have been one of the best defenses in basketball over the last week or so, and the market simply hasn’t caught up. We should see the Mavericks struggle a bit to score, particularly with some injuries mounting, and on the other side of the floor we should see plenty of slow-developing halfcourt sets for L.A. leading to interior points.
So, I lean firmly towards the Under here. It’s worth noting that, once again, more money (98%) than bets (61%) have come in on the Over 241 points, signaling some big action on that bet. Currently, 52% of the bets and 57% at DraftKings are on the Lakers to cover.
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Mavericks vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 81 games (+18.25 Units / 12% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Lakers.
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Mavericks vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 22, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest-Dallas, Spectrum SportsNet |
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