MLB picks 9/18 YRFI & NRFI best bets today | Pickswise
Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game waiting for your bet to cash? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new favorite betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight. Monday brings an 11-game slate, starting in Kansas City and ending in Los Angeles with the Dodgers. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals: YRFI (-115)
My first pick of the day comes out of St. Louis in a game between the Cardinals and the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers. Adam Wainwright is 1 win away from career win 200, but it’s been a difficult season for the 42-year-old veteran. Across 20 starts this season, Wainwright owns a career-worst 7.95 ERA, while his underlying metrics are among the worst marks of any starting pitcher. Wainwright falls in the bottom 1 percentile in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. Across his last 7 starts alone, Wainwright has given up 33 earned runs in just 31.1 innings of work. I’m favoring the Brewers in their matchup against a struggling Wainwright.
On the other side, the Brewers counter with right-hander Freddy Peralta. Peralta is having another solid season in Milwaukee and is pitching to a 3.79 ERA across 28 starts. While the numbers are respectable, Peralta struggled his last time out against the Cardinals, surrendering a season-high 6 earned runs in 5.1 innings. The season has gone much smoother for Peralta since that Game, but the Cardinals are still one of the best lineups in baseball despite their record. On the season, the Cardinals rank 8th in OPS and still have a solid top-of-the-order with players such as Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. I’m backing each of these lineups and looking for some early scoring.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-115)
The Baltimore Orioles have clinched their way into the playoffs and will now take on the defending champs tonight when they go up against the Houston Astros. John Means is making just his second start of the season for the O’s since returning from UCL surgery, and his debut was quite encouraging. Means allowed 3 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 home runs across 5.0 innings, but pounded the strike zone, throwing a total of 55 strikes in his 75 pitches. Tonight will be just the 4th start Means has had since 2021, but I like his efficiency and like him to at least keep the Astros quiet for an inning.
The Astros counter with ace Justin Verlander, making his 25th start this season, and 9th for Houston since coming over at the trade deadline. On the season, Verlander owns a respectable 3.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with a 70% chase rate. Verlander has struggled in September, posting a 5.40 ERA across 3 outings, but this could be a good spot to go after a team that’s already looking ahead at the postseason. Even at the age of 40, Verlander is still among the most feared pitchers in the Game. I think he does enough against Baltimore tonight and holds them scoreless through the first.
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